Talk on 'Perception and Threat: Understanding Georgia’s Foreign Policy Since 2022'

Cambridge Central Asia Forum invites you to a talk on

'Perception and Threat: Understanding Georgia’s Foreign Policy Since 2022'

By

Rohan Dronsfield, University of Oxford 

Date: 8 May

Time: 11am-1pm

Venue: Room S3, Alison Richard Building, 7 West Road, Cambridge CB3 9DT

Online Zoom registration link: https://cam-ac-uk.zoom.us/meeting/register/ZDSon0AhSgij2RyUU0Umew

Everyone is welcome.  

Abstract: This paper examines Georgia’s sharp retreat from Euro-Atlantic integration since 2022 through the lens of neoclassical realism, giving causal strength to domestic factors in the formation of foreign policy change within and beyond the South Caucasus.  Focusing on the ruling Georgian Dream party and the decisive role of its founder, it asks: Why have Georgian Dream foreign policy elites pursued such a pronounced shift away from the Euro-Atlantic Area following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Structural constraints and opportunities cannot alone explain the scale and speed of Georgia’s reorientation. Drawing on 25 interviews with political elites and experts, as well as diverse secondary and primary sources, the paper demonstrates how systemic constraints are filtered through elite perceptions of existential threat to the nation and to the regime.  It argues that the escalation of war in Ukraine functioned as a path to the further consolidation of power in the context of deep perceptions of threat, conditioned by Georgia’s history of invasion and conflict.  The paper contributes to debates on small-state agency, post-Soviet space, and multipolarity in contested geopolitical spaces.

Speaker Biography: Rohan Dronsfield is a Masters research student at the University of Oxford’s School of Global and Area Studies, where he currently focuses on foreign policy in the post-Soviet region.  As an Area Studies scholar and former government official, his work bridges international relations, political science, and public policy, drawing on insights from disciplines such as history, anthropology, and economics to explore novel questions.  He speaks Russian, French, and is learning Georgian, and will be moving to Central Asia upon completion of his Masters to undertake further research and language learning.

Cambridge Central Asia Forum Seminar Series Term Card Easter Term 2026

15 May From the Heart of Kulob: Gender, Personhood and Everyday Life in Southern Tajikistan, Diana Ibanez- Tirado, University of Sussex

22 May Entrepreneurship in Practice: Qualitative Insights from Central Asia for Conceptual Innovation and Applied Business Research, Phillip Schroeder, Nazarbayev University

28 May TBC