Talk on Chinese Direct Investment in Central Asia and Russia in the face of Global Volatility (2011-2021): New Drivers and Determinants

Cambridge Central Asia Forum invites you to a talk on

Chinese Direct Investment in Central Asia and Russia in the face of Global Volatility (2011-2021): New Drivers and Determinants

by

Ninel Seniuk (Bratislava University of Economics and Management in Slovakia)

Date: 6 March

Time: 11am-1pm

Venue: Room 119, Alison Richard Building, 7 West Road, Cambridge CB3 9DT

Online Zoom registration link: https://cam-ac-uk.zoom.us/meeting/register/-MP7-0DqQCqforJqgXf6WA#/ 

Everyone is welcome.  

Abstract: This paper provides a comparative analysis of Russian and Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Central Asia between 2009 and 2020, examining the drivers and determinants shaping both countries’ economic engagement in the region. Building on Dunning’s OLI paradigm and UNCTAD’s distinction between FDI drivers and determinants, the study adopts a mixed-method longitudinal approach combining quantitative data on FDI flows and stock with qualitative analysis of policy initiatives, investment agreements, and geopolitical developments. The findings indicate that both Russian and Chinese investments are predominantly resource-seeking and politically motivated, rather than efficiency-seeking or strategic-asset-seeking. Kazakhstan emerges as the principal recipient of FDI from both countries, reflecting its market size and hydrocarbon wealth. While Chinese FDI stock has grown more rapidly and surpassed Russian investment in absolute terms, Central Asia remains relatively more significant for Russia within its global FDI portfolio. The analysis further demonstrates that regional integration projects—the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—have produced mixed economic effects, with political and security considerations frequently outweighing purely economic rationales. Overall, the paper contributes an interdisciplinary and comparative perspective on Sino-Russian economic interaction in a strategically contested region.

Speaker Biography: Ninel Seniuk is an Associate Professor at the Bratislava University of Economics and Management in Slovakia. Her work explores how Chinese and other emerging-market investments—particularly from BRICS countries—shape economic development and political dynamics across regions. She specializes in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), with a focus on Europe and Eurasia. She lived in China and speaks Chinese. In addition to her academic career, Ninel has served as an advisor to the Director of the UNIDO Centre in Russia, where she also supervised international students from the joint HSE–UCL programme “International Relations in Eurasia” during their internships. Her current research examines the drivers and determinants of Chinese investment in the Visegrad countries, with particular attention to Slovakia. She is especially interested in the intersection of global capital flows, regional cooperation, and economic strategy in emerging and transition economies.